How TruthPing is configured

These are configuration patterns rather than case studies. Each one describes a market situation, the condition set against it, and what the resulting record contains. None of them describes an outcome, and none should be read as a suggestion about what to do with a repricing.

A market held through a scheduled event

The situation: a position exists in a market that resolves after a known date, and the price is expected to move around the announcement rather than before it.

The configuration: band break on the market, so a departure from its trailing seven-day range is reported, plus a price threshold at the level where the thesis would need revisiting.

The record: the price at window start and the price at the moment the band was left, the spread and depth at that moment, and a permalink that still exists after the event has resolved.

A thin market where size is the measurement worth watching

The situation: a market with a shallow book, where a single large trade moves the price further than the same trade would move a deep one.

The configuration: large single trade, which measures against that market's own P95 trade size over the trailing week rather than against a fixed dollar figure.

The record: the trade size alongside the market's P95, so the reading is legible without knowing the market. Depth within ten cents at the moment of the trade, which is the context that says whether the move had size behind it.

A pair trading on both venues

The situation: the same event is listed on Polymarket and on Kalshi, and the two prices do not always agree.

The configuration: conditions on both sides of the pair, with the market page showing the two prices, the two spreads and the depth behind each.

The record: both venue prices at trigger, so the difference is captured at a timestamp rather than reconstructed later from memory.

A market watched for the absence of movement

The situation: a monitored account posts about a topic and the expectation is that the related market will move.

The configuration: no configuration is required for this one. Wire activity that produces no repricing within the window is filed as a quiet-wire non-event.

The record: the post, its timestamp, and the observation that no repricing followed. These are the majority of the archive, and they are kept for the same reason the triggered records are kept.

A watchlist tuned down rather than up

The situation: a market is volatile enough that the default threshold reports more than is useful.

The configuration: the delivery threshold is raised above its five-point default on that market. Detection is unchanged; what changes is the size of the move that gets reported.

The record: unchanged. The archive holds the same measurements regardless of what any individual account chose to be told about.