Step one. The snapshot
Every 30 seconds, TruthPing records the state of each market on the watchlist: its mid-price, its spread, and its order-book depth. Mid-price is used rather than last trade, because last trade bounces on a thin book and reports movement that did not happen. The snapshot is the unit everything else is built from. Conditions are not evaluated continuously between snapshots, and nothing in the product claims otherwise.
Step two. The baseline
A price move only means something relative to what the market normally does. A two-cent move on a market that trades between forty and sixty cents is noise. The same move on a market pinned at three cents is a large revaluation. TruthPing recomputes a baseline for every monitored market once an hour, containing five measurements:
- A 7-day price band, the tenth to ninetieth percentile, computed in log-odds on an hourly mid-price series rather than on raw price
- The hourly standard deviation of log-odds movement
- A conservative depth norm, taken as the median of the thinner side of the book
- The median 24-hour volume
- The P95 trade size for that market, venue-relative
Step three. The validity guards
A baseline is only published when it has enough behind it: at least five days of data, at least 100 hourly observations, and at least 50 deltas. Bands narrower than three cents are widened to three cents, because a band tighter than that would fire on rounding. Where a market has not yet cleared those thresholds, it carries an insufficient-data state, which is a legitimate output rather than a placeholder. A market whose trailing week was unusually turbulent carries a volatile-regime flag, so a band computed during chaos is not read as a settled normal.
Step four. The conditions
Five conditions can be configured against a market. Two of them open a full event with a 90-minute window: sustained reprice and band break. Three are recorded as observational entries at the moment they occur: price threshold, volume surge, and large single trade.
Sustained reprice requires a move of at least three cents that also clears three standard deviations against the market's own volatility over a ten-minute lookback, and it must still hold on the following snapshot. Band break requires the price to sit outside the same edge of the 7-day band on two consecutive snapshots, having started the window inside the band. In both cases, sustained means held across two consecutive 30-second snapshots — roughly 60 seconds of persistence, not an instantaneous reading.
The delivery threshold is separate from the detection floor. It defaults to five points and can be raised, so a watchlist can be tuned to report only larger moves. It cannot be lowered below the default.
Step five. The record
When a condition is met, TruthPing sends one Telegram message and opens a permalinked record. The record carries the price at window start, the price now, the spread at trigger, and the order-book depth within ten cents of the mid. Wire context attaches where a monitored post sits in the same window, with its timestamp and a confidence value. Where one side of a book is momentarily missing, the record shows DEPTH PENDING rather than a number.
Ninety minutes after the trigger, the window closes, the record is finalised, and it is not edited afterwards. No new event opens on that market for thirty minutes after close. Records that resolved against the direction of the move stay in the archive, and so do quiet-wire non-events, where a monitored post occurred and no repricing followed.