Last verified: 01 Aug 2026

Prediction-Market Terms, Defined: Repricing, Mispricing, Depth, Band

This glossary defines the terms prediction-market traders run into on Polymarket and Kalshi. Each entry stands alone: read one and you have the whole definition, no scrolling required. Definitions are neutral and venue-accurate. Where a term is specific to TruthPing, it is labelled as such, and nothing here prescribes a position.

A to Z of prediction-market terms

Jump to any term below. Every definition is 40 to 60 words and self contained, so it reads correctly if quoted on its own.

RepricingTruthPing term

A repricing is a sustained move in a market's price beyond its own recent range. TruthPing defines it against the market's 7-day baseline: the price has to break out and hold, not just flicker. It describes what the price did, not why it did it, and never implies a direction to trade.

Mispricing

A mispricing is a claim that a market's price differs from its fair probability. It is a judgment, not an observation: it assumes you know the true odds. Monitoring tools can flag that a price moved, but calling something a mispricing is your read. TruthPing reports moves and leaves the mispricing call to you.

BaselineTruthPing term

A baseline is the reference range a monitor compares the current price against. TruthPing uses each market's own trailing 7-day price behaviour, so a market is judged against itself rather than a fixed rule. A move only counts as unusual relative to how that specific market normally trades.

Band breachTruthPing term

A band breach is when a price crosses and holds beyond the edge of its baseline band. The band is the normal range around the 7-day baseline. A breach is stronger than a flicker across the edge: the price has to hold past it. TruthPing sends a band-breach alert when that happens, with the numbers attached.

Order-book depth

Order-book depth measures how much size sits on the bids and offers near the current price. Deep markets absorb large trades without moving much; thin markets swing on small orders. Depth is why TruthPing ranks markets: its default index is the top 75 markets by order-book depth across both venues.

Spread

The spread is the gap between the best bid and the best offer, the buy and sell prices available right now. A tight spread means the two sides are close and trading is cheap to enter; a wide spread means they are far apart. TruthPing includes the spread in every alert receipt so you can judge execution cost.

Price level alertTruthPing term

A price level alert fires when a market crosses a specific price you set, for example 60 cents on a YES contract. Unlike a repricing alert it ignores the baseline entirely: it only cares whether your chosen line was crossed. It is the simplest of TruthPing's five alert types and the most literal.

Volume surgeTruthPing term

A volume surge is when trading activity runs a set multiple above a market's typical volume. It means attention arrived, not that the price will go one way. Volume can surge on both sides of a contested market. TruthPing sends a volume-surge alert when your multiple is exceeded, alongside the current price.

Large single trade (print)

A large single trade, or print, is one outsized order relative to a market's normal trade size. It tells you a participant with size acted, not why or whether they are right. On Polymarket a print must be normalised to one side of the market before its size is meaningful, because the feed mixes YES and NO trades.

Resolution

Resolution is the point at which a market's outcome is determined and its contracts pay out one or zero. Before resolution a price is a live probability estimate; after it, the event either happened or it did not. TruthPing grades each archived alert after the underlying market resolves, misses kept.

Settlement

Settlement is the mechanical payout that follows resolution: winning contracts are paid their face value and losing contracts expire worthless. Resolution decides the outcome; settlement moves the money. On regulated venues like Kalshi, settlement follows the venue's published rules for each event contract.

YES / NO tokens

In a binary prediction market each contract has two sides: a YES token that pays if the event happens and a NO token that pays if it does not. Their prices sum to roughly one. A trade in either token is really a position on the same underlying question, which is why order feeds must track which side each print is.

Event contract

An event contract is a tradable claim on a specific future outcome, priced between zero and one as a probability. Kalshi lists regulated event contracts; Polymarket lists similar binary markets on-chain. The price is the market's estimate of how likely the event is, and it moves as new information and trades arrive.

MonitorTruthPing term

In TruthPing, a monitor is a watch you place on one live market with your chosen alert types and thresholds. Scout includes 5 monitor slots and Sharp includes 50. Prices are checked every 30 seconds against your settings, and an alert fires only when a threshold you set is actually met.

Alert fatigue

Alert fatigue is what happens when a tool sends so many notifications that you stop reading them. It is the real failure mode of firehose feeds. Community advice converges on running about three alert tools before everything gets muted. TruthPing counters it with one alert per event and user-set thresholds.

ReceiptTruthPing term

A receipt is TruthPing's frozen, permalinked record of an alert. It captures the price at the move, the price now, the spread, the depth, and the detection latency at the moment the alert fired, then it is graded after the market resolves. Receipts live in the public archive, misses included, so the record cannot be edited later.

Leading indicator

A leading indicator is data thought to move before the outcome it points to. In prediction markets, a repricing or volume surge is sometimes treated as a leading indicator of news. It is a description, not a promise: leading indicators are often wrong, and a move can reverse. TruthPing reports the move and leaves the inference to you.

Arbitrage

Arbitrage is capturing a price difference for the same outcome across venues, for example when an equivalent event trades cheaper on Kalshi than on Polymarket. In practice fees, spreads, and settlement differences erode much of the gap. TruthPing observes prices across both venues but does not execute or prescribe trades.

Market maker

A market maker posts both bids and offers to provide liquidity, profiting from the spread rather than a directional view. Their large trades often reflect hedging inventory, not a bet on the outcome. This is one reason a large print is not evidence of conviction: the whale may simply be a maker balancing its book.

Thin market

A thin market has little depth on its order book, so small trades move the price sharply and the spread is often wide. Prices in thin markets are noisier and easier to distort. TruthPing's depth ranking is designed to focus on markets with enough liquidity for a move to mean something.