Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 54¢ at window start → 52¢ at close
• VOLUME 1.5× this market's 7-day norm, $909.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 12.1:1 ask, $46.0k/$555.5k within 10¢

Book 12.1:1 ask, $46.0k/$555.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 03 Sept 2026, 03:04 UTC: Sustained reprice: 54¢ → 50¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.15× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 129 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 51¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 52¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 52¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots