OUTSIDE BAND
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Kalshi
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
Window 02 Sept 2026, 16:18 UTC → 02 Sept 2026, 17:48 UTC
Price at window start 4¢ → at trigger 3¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 01 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced -0.2pts: 4¢ at window start → 4¢ now
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 4¢ (band 4¢–7¢)
band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
- VOLUME 7.8× this market's 7-day norm, $7.1k in 24h
- BOOK Book 1.8:1 bid, $16.7k/$9.5k within 10¢
Triggers (1)
- 02 Sept 2026, 16:18 UTC: Band breach (lower): 4¢ → 3¢ (-0.7pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.23× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time