Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 27¢ at window start → 29¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 34¢ (band 34¢–54¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 5.2× this market's 7-day norm, $1.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 9.3:1 ask, $194/$1.8k within 10¢

Book 9.3:1 ask, $194/$1.8k within 10¢ · spread 4.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 02 Sept 2026, 13:27 UTC: Sustained reprice: 27¢ → 31¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 30¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 29¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 57% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 29¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots