Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -9.0pts: 36¢ at window start → 27¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 34¢ (band 34¢–55¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 5.3× this market's 7-day norm, $1.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 14.1:1 ask, $76/$1.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $231, 1.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 39 trades / 7d

Book 14.1:1 ask, $76/$1.1k within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 02 Sept 2026, 05:40 UTC: Band breach (lower): 36¢ → 31¢ (-5.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 02 Sept 2026, 05:43 UTC: Sustained reprice: 31¢ → 27¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.24× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 27¢, drift +4.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 26¢, held +9.5ptspts
• Peak move: +9.5pts
• Held 95% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 27¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots