Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 82¢ at window start → 83¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 82¢ (band 79¢–82¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 4.5× this market's 7-day norm, $13.7k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 bid, $87.9k/$65.8k within 10¢

Book 1.3:1 bid, $87.9k/$65.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 02 Sept 2026, 11:46 UTC: Band breach (upper): 82¢ → 83¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 83¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 83¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 83¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots