Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.5pts: 87¢ at window start → 89¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 87¢ (band 84¢–87¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 5.5:1 ask, $8.6k/$47.4k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.6× this market's 7-day norm, $1.1k in 24h

Book 5.5:1 ask, $8.6k/$47.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 02 Sept 2026, 13:30 UTC: Band breach (upper): 87¢ → 90¢ (+2.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.83× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 90¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 90¢, held +2.5ptspts
• Peak move: +2.5pts
• Held 60% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 89¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots