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Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 79¢ at window start → 80¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 85¢ (band 85¢–88¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 4.0× this market's 7-day norm, $52.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 10.8:1 ask, $3.5k/$38.0k within 10¢

Book 10.8:1 ask, $3.5k/$38.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 02 Sept 2026, 10:29 UTC: Sustained reprice: 79¢ → 73¢ (-6.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 02 Sept 2026, 10:42 UTC: Sustained reprice: 73¢ → 77¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.6× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 19 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 72¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 78¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 80¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots