OUTSIDE BAND
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Polymarket
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Window 02 Sept 2026, 20:17 UTC → 02 Sept 2026, 21:47 UTC
Price at window start 23¢ → at trigger 28¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 06 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced +5.5pts: 23¢ at window start → 28¢ now
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 26¢ (band 15¢–26¢)
band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
- VOLUME 3.2× this market's 7-day norm, $34.9k in 24h
- BOOK Book 1.4:1 bid, $4.0k/$2.9k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $645, 1.1× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 269 trades / 7d
Triggers (1)
- 02 Sept 2026, 20:17 UTC: Band breach (upper): 23¢ → 28¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.43× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time