OUTSIDE BAND
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Kalshi
Texas Senate winner?
Window 02 Sept 2026, 21:53 UTC → 02 Sept 2026, 23:23 UTC
Price at window start 51¢ → at trigger 53¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 03 Nov 2027, 15:00 UTC
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced +1.5pts: 51¢ at window start → 53¢ now
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 52¢ (band 49¢–52¢)
band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
- VOLUME 3.4× this market's 7-day norm, $75.7k in 24h
- BOOK Book 2.3:1 ask, $42.8k/$98.1k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.6k, 3.2× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 1,498 trades / 7d
Triggers (1)
- 02 Sept 2026, 21:53 UTC: Band breach (upper): 51¢ → 53¢ (+1.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.5× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time