Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.3pts: 88¢ at window start → 88¢ at close
• VOLUME 4.6× this market's 7-day norm, $24.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 ask, $8.4k/$13.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.3k, 10.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,478 trades / 7d

Book 1.6:1 ask, $8.4k/$13.2k within 10¢ · spread 0.5¢

Triggers (1)

• 02 Sept 2026, 23:43 UTC: Band breach (lower): 88¢ → 87¢ (-0.9pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.28× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 40 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 86¢, drift +0.9pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 87¢, held +1.3ptspts
• Peak move: +1.9pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 88¢
• Graded from 178 snapshots