Los Angeles Mayor winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 35¢ at window start → 37¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 36¢ (band 33¢–36¢)
  band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 11.6× this market's 7-day norm, $16.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $152.9k/$141.1k within 10¢

Book 1.1:1 bid, $152.9k/$141.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 02 Sept 2026, 15:15 UTC: Band breach (upper): 35¢ → 37¢ (+2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.67× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 37¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 37¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 37¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots