Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 83¢ at window start → 83¢ at close
• VOLUME 7.7× this market's 7-day norm, $141.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 ask, $25.3k/$40.7k within 10¢

Book 1.6:1 ask, $25.3k/$40.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 02 Sept 2026, 17:11 UTC: Band breach (lower): 83¢ → 82¢ (-1.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.2× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 18 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 82¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 82¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 33% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 83¢
• Graded from 177 snapshots