REPRICED
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Polymarket
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
Window 02 Sept 2026, 07:21 UTC → 02 Sept 2026, 08:51 UTC
Price at window start 80¢ → at trigger 77¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 30 Sept 2026, 20:29 UTC
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 80¢ at window start → 82¢ now
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 82¢ (band 82¢–90¢)
band from 163 hourly obs / 7.0d
- VOLUME 12.4× this market's 7-day norm, $221.0k in 24h
- BOOK Book 1.4:1 ask, $21.2k/$29.7k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.0k, 2.2× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 1,289 trades / 7d
Triggers (2)
- 02 Sept 2026, 07:21 UTC: Sustained reprice: 80¢ → 77¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 02 Sept 2026, 07:56 UTC: Sustained reprice: 77¢ → 80¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.43× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time