Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.5pts: 82¢ at window start → 78¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 84¢ (band 84¢–90¢)
  band from 162 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 16.8× this market's 7-day norm, $211.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 8.2:1 ask, $2.8k/$23.1k within 10¢

Book 8.2:1 ask, $2.8k/$23.1k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 02 Sept 2026, 01:31 UTC: Sustained reprice: 82¢ → 78¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.58× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 78¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 78¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 78¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots