Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 37¢ at window start → 36¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 36¢ (band 36¢–41¢)
  band from 161 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 bid, $2.4k/$1.5k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $1.5k in 24h

Book 1.6:1 bid, $2.4k/$1.5k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 02 Sept 2026, 00:22 UTC: Band breach (lower): 37¢ → 36¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.12× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 36¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 36¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 36¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots