OUTSIDE BAND
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Polymarket
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
Window 02 Sept 2026, 05:20 UTC → 02 Sept 2026, 06:50 UTC
Price at window start 37¢ → at trigger 36¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 01 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 37¢ at window start → 36¢ now
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 36¢ (band 36¢–41¢)
band from 162 hourly obs / 7.0d
- BOOK Book 1.9:1 bid, $3.0k/$1.6k within 10¢
- VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $1.0k in 24h
Triggers (1)
- 02 Sept 2026, 05:20 UTC: Band breach (lower): 37¢ → 36¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.12× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time