Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 71¢ at window start → 70¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 70¢ (band 70¢–75¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 ask, $202.0k/$255.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.9k, 2.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,547 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $93.1k in 24h

Book 1.3:1 ask, $202.0k/$255.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 01 Sept 2026, 18:04 UTC: Band breach (lower): 71¢ → 70¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.2× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 19 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 70¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 70¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 70¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots