Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 64¢ at window start → 65¢ at close
• BOOK Book 2.7:1 ask, $894/$2.4k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.1× this market's 7-day norm, $14 in 24h

Book 2.7:1 ask, $894/$2.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 01 Sept 2026, 20:48 UTC: Band breach (upper): 64¢ → 65¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.02× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 65¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 65¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 65¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots