Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 89¢ at window start → 91¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 89¢ (band 86¢–89¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 8.7× this market's 7-day norm, $12.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.8:1 ask, $5.6k/$10.1k within 10¢

Book 1.8:1 ask, $5.6k/$10.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 01 Sept 2026, 20:40 UTC: Band breach (upper): 89¢ → 90¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 90¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 90¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 91¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots