Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.3pts: 51¢ at window start → 49¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 50¢ (band 50¢–55¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.2× this market's 7-day norm, $3.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.7:1 ask, $2.6k/$7.0k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $448, 1.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 379 trades / 7d

Book 2.7:1 ask, $2.6k/$7.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.2¢

Triggers (1)

• 01 Sept 2026, 15:04 UTC: Band breach (lower): 51¢ → 49¢ (-2.3pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.4× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 12 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 49¢, drift -0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 49¢, held +1.9ptspts
• Peak move: +2.9pts
• Held 81% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 49¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots