Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.7pts: 49¢ at window start → 49¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 50¢ (band 50¢–55¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 6.4× this market's 7-day norm, $10.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 10.1:1 ask, $980/$9.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1000, 3.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 396 trades / 7d

Book 10.1:1 ask, $980/$9.9k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 01 Sept 2026, 17:04 UTC: Sustained reprice: 49¢ → 45¢ (-4.9pts), confirmed over 30s
• 01 Sept 2026, 17:10 UTC: Sustained reprice: 45¢ → 50¢ (+5.1pts), confirmed over 30s
• 01 Sept 2026, 18:04 UTC: Band breach (lower): 50¢ → 49¢ (-0.6pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.87× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 11 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 45¢, drift -0.8pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 50¢, held -0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +4.9pts
• Held 13% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 49¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots