Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 88¢ at window start → 88¢ at close
• VOLUME 4.2× this market's 7-day norm, $47.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 5.8:1 ask, $12.1k/$71.0k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $919, 1.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 355 trades / 7d

Book 5.8:1 ask, $12.1k/$71.0k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 01 Sept 2026, 11:09 UTC: Band breach (upper): 88¢ → 89¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.14× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 27 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 88¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 88¢, held -0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 88¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots