Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 31¢ at window start → 32¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 31¢ (band 27¢–31¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 6.1:1 ask, $4.9k/$30.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $15.1k in 24h

Book 6.1:1 ask, $4.9k/$30.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 01 Sept 2026, 22:11 UTC: Band breach (upper): 31¢ → 32¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 32¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 32¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 32¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots