US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 21¢ at window start → 19¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 20¢ (band 20¢–41¢)
  band from 162 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 10.7:1 bid, $62.6k/$5.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $15.7k, 15.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,975 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.3× this market's 7-day norm, $37.6k in 24h

Book 10.7:1 bid, $62.6k/$5.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 01 Sept 2026, 03:42 UTC: Band breach (lower): 21¢ → 20¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.05× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 12 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 20¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 20¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 19¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots