US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 21¢ at window start → 20¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 20¢ (band 20¢–41¢)
  band from 162 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 15.4:1 bid, $66.2k/$4.3k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.3× this market's 7-day norm, $37.6k in 24h

Book 15.4:1 bid, $66.2k/$4.3k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 01 Sept 2026, 10:10 UTC: Band breach (lower): 21¢ → 20¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.05× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 20¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 20¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 20¢
• Graded from 181 snapshots