Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.4pts: 6¢ at window start → 4¢ at close
• VOLUME 9.1× this market's 7-day norm, $5.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.0:1 bid, $1.1k/$545 within 10¢

Book 2.0:1 bid, $1.1k/$545 within 10¢ · spread 0.3¢

Triggers (1)

• 01 Sept 2026, 05:01 UTC: Band breach (upper): 6¢ → 6¢ (+0.7pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.23× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 6¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 4¢, held -1.3ptspts
• Peak move: +0.8pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 4¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots