Next Fed rate hike?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 77¢ at window start → 76¢ at close
• VOLUME 3.0× this market's 7-day norm, $59.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.0:1 bid, $65.5k/$32.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $3.0k, 5.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,244 trades / 7d

Book 2.0:1 bid, $65.5k/$32.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 01 Sept 2026, 22:42 UTC: Band breach (upper): 77¢ → 78¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.06× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 18 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 78¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 77¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 76¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots