Next Fed rate hike?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 77¢ at window start → 77¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 77¢ (band 59¢–77¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.9× this market's 7-day norm, $57.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.3:1 bid, $66.1k/$28.3k within 10¢

Book 2.3:1 bid, $66.1k/$28.3k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 01 Sept 2026, 20:41 UTC: Band breach (upper): 77¢ → 78¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@FirstSquawk · X: posted 12 min before the break

THE OIL SHOCK REIGNITED INFLATION AND RATE CONCERNS, WITH THE U.S. 10-YEAR YIELD UP 4 BASIS POINTS TO 4.79% AND THE UK 10-YEAR UP 16 BASIS POINTS TO 5.22%, AS MARKETS INCREASINGLY PRICE A POSSIBLE SEPTEMBER FED HIKE.

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.06× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 16 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 78¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 77¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 77¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots