NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 25¢ at window start → 24¢ at close
• VOLUME 1.9× this market's 7-day norm, $18.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.5:1 bid, $6.4k/$2.5k within 10¢

Book 2.5:1 bid, $6.4k/$2.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 01 Sept 2026, 21:49 UTC: Band breach (lower): 25¢ → 23¢ (-1.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.3× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 23¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 24¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 67% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 24¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots