NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 24¢ at window start → 24¢ at close
• VOLUME 1.8× this market's 7-day norm, $16.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 bid, $6.3k/$5.1k within 10¢

Book 1.2:1 bid, $6.3k/$5.1k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 01 Sept 2026, 18:15 UTC: Band breach (lower): 24¢ → 23¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.2× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 24¢, drift -1.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 24¢, held -0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 24¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots