Michigan Senate winner? (Person)

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 37¢ at window start → 35¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 36¢ (band 36¢–40¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.2:1 ask, $23.3k/$51.0k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $2.7k in 24h

Book 2.2:1 ask, $23.3k/$51.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 01 Sept 2026, 22:24 UTC: Band breach (lower): 37¢ → 36¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 15 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 36¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 35¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 35¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots