Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -5.5pts: 86¢ at window start → 81¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 85¢ (band 85¢–90¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 15.1× this market's 7-day norm, $189.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.9:1 ask, $17.6k/$33.6k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.6k, 2.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 917 trades / 7d

Book 1.9:1 ask, $17.6k/$33.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 01 Sept 2026, 16:12 UTC: Band breach (lower): 86¢ → 84¢ (-2.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 01 Sept 2026, 17:35 UTC: Sustained reprice: 84¢ → 80¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.5× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 83 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 82¢, drift +2.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 82¢, held +4.5ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 92% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 81¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots