Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 81¢ at window start → 82¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 85¢ (band 85¢–90¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 19.4× this market's 7-day norm, $244.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.1:1 ask, $12.0k/$25.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $4.3k, 4.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,015 trades / 7d

Book 2.1:1 ask, $12.0k/$25.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 01 Sept 2026, 18:53 UTC: Sustained reprice: 81¢ → 86¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 01 Sept 2026, 19:13 UTC: Band breach (lower): 86¢ → 84¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.9× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 62 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 86¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 85¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +4.5pts
• Held 11% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 82¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots