Iran full airspace closure by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.5pts: 13¢ at window start → 14¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 11¢ (band 5¢–11¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 14.1× this market's 7-day norm, $107.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.9:1 bid, $6.1k/$2.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $3.4k, 10.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 931 trades / 7d

Book 2.9:1 bid, $6.1k/$2.1k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 01 Sept 2026, 19:09 UTC: Sustained reprice: 13¢ → 16¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 01 Sept 2026, 20:21 UTC: Sustained reprice: 16¢ → 13¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.7× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 60 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 17¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 17¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 38% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 14¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots