Iran full airspace closure by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 10¢ at window start → 12¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 10¢ (band 5¢–10¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 9.3× this market's 7-day norm, $70.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 bid, $4.5k/$3.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $461, 1.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 795 trades / 7d

Book 1.3:1 bid, $4.5k/$3.5k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 01 Sept 2026, 16:14 UTC: Band breach (upper): 10¢ → 12¢ (+1.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 45 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 11¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 12¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +2.5pts
• Held 80% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 12¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots