Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 24¢ at window start → 22¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 23¢ (band 23¢–28¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.8× this market's 7-day norm, $7.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 bid, $1.8k/$1.4k within 10¢

Book 1.3:1 bid, $1.8k/$1.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 01 Sept 2026, 10:38 UTC: Band breach (lower): 24¢ → 22¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.31× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 22¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 22¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 22¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots