Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.5pts: 28¢ at window start → 24¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.7:1 bid, $1.8k/$1.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $5.4k in 24h

Book 1.7:1 bid, $1.8k/$1.1k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 01 Sept 2026, 06:08 UTC: Sustained reprice: 28¢ → 25¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.43× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 24¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 24¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 24¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots