OUTSIDE BAND FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

Window 01 Sept 2026, 18:11 UTC → 01 Sept 2026, 19:41 UTC

Price at window start 37¢ → at trigger 36¢ → at close 36¢

YES down · NO up

Resolves 01 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 37¢ at window start → 36¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 36¢ (band 36¢–41¢)
band from 161 hourly obs / 7.0d
VOLUME 2.0× this market's 7-day norm, $2.3k in 24h
BOOK Book 1.3:1 bid, $3.1k/$2.3k within 10¢

Book 1.3:1 bid, $3.1k/$2.3k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

01 Sept 2026, 18:11 UTC: Band breach (lower): 37¢ → 36¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@FirstSquawk · X: posted 30 min before the break

TRUMP SAYS THE UNITED STATES IS, 'AS WE SPEAK, STRIKING IRANIAN TARGETS NEAR THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ', DESCRIBING THE STRIKES AS 'LARGE AND POWERFUL' AND IN RETALIATION FOR IRAN'S FAILED ATTEMPT AT ADDING SEA MINES TO THE STRAIT — WHICH HE SAYS CURRENTLY HAS NO MINES, ALL 'COMPLETELY REMOVED OR DETONATED' — AND FOR IRAN SHOOTING EIGHT MISSILES, 'ALL SUCCESSFULLY KNOCKED DOWN', AT THE U.S. MILITARY BASE IN JORDAN. - TRUTH SOCIAL

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

Opening move ≈ 0.25× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+2m after alert: 36¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
+30m: 36¢, held +1.0ptspts
Peak move: +1.0pts
Held 100% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
Gave back half within 60m: no
Price at close: 36¢
Graded from 180 snapshots