Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 53¢ at window start → 55¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 54¢ (band 30¢–54¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.9× this market's 7-day norm, $42.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.9:1 ask, $24.2k/$46.9k within 10¢

Book 1.9:1 ask, $24.2k/$46.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 01 Sept 2026, 02:50 UTC: Band breach (upper): 53¢ → 55¢ (+2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.09× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 54¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 54¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 55¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots