Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.2pts: 5¢ at window start → 5¢ at close
• VOLUME 3.2× this market's 7-day norm, $23.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.0:1 ask, $2.3k/$4.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.4k, 1.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 139 trades / 7d

Book 2.0:1 ask, $2.3k/$4.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.8¢

Triggers (1)

• 01 Sept 2026, 04:13 UTC: Band breach (lower): 5¢ → 5¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 4¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 5¢, held -0.2ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 5¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots