Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 6¢ at window start → 6¢ at close
• VOLUME 2.9× this market's 7-day norm, $21.7k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $3.1k/$4.7k within 10¢

Book 1.5:1 ask, $3.1k/$4.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 01 Sept 2026, 01:24 UTC: Band breach (lower): 6¢ → 5¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 5¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 5¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 6¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots