Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 44¢ at window start → 41¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 47¢ (band 47¢–69¢)
  band from 160 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.6× this market's 7-day norm, $1.3M in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.3:1 ask, $95.5k/$221.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $25.8k, 12.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 6,430 trades / 7d

Book 2.3:1 ask, $95.5k/$221.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 31 Aug 2026, 16:05 UTC: Sustained reprice: 44¢ → 40¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.19× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 146 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 40¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 39¢, held +5.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 60% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 41¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots