Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 48¢ at window start → 45¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 47¢ (band 47¢–69¢)
  band from 160 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.7× this market's 7-day norm, $835.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $128.0k/$197.7k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $19.5k, 10.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 6,151 trades / 7d

Book 1.5:1 ask, $128.0k/$197.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 31 Aug 2026, 11:57 UTC: Band breach (lower): 48¢ → 47¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.05× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 87 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 47¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 47¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 45¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots