Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 52¢ at window start → 55¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 52¢ (band 31¢–52¢)
  band from 161 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 3.4:1 bid, $6.8k/$2.0k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $710 in 24h

Book 3.4:1 bid, $6.8k/$2.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 31 Aug 2026, 13:06 UTC: Band breach (upper): 52¢ → 53¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.05× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 53¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 55¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 86% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 55¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots