Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 60¢ at window start → 61¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 60¢ (band 41¢–60¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 bid, $1.1k/$894 within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.1× this market's 7-day norm, $53 in 24h

Book 1.2:1 bid, $1.1k/$894 within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 31 Aug 2026, 12:49 UTC: Band breach (upper): 60¢ → 61¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.05× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 61¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 61¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 61¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots