Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.7pts: 22¢ at window start → 27¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 22¢ (band 19¢–22¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 7.2× this market's 7-day norm, $122.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $8.5k/$12.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $10.0k, 19.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 609 trades / 7d

Book 1.5:1 ask, $8.5k/$12.4k within 10¢ · spread 0.9¢

Triggers (1)

• 31 Aug 2026, 12:06 UTC: Band breach (upper): 22¢ → 26¢ (+3.6pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.04× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 110 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 25¢, drift -0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 26¢, held +4.1ptspts
• Peak move: +21.1pts
• Held 22% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 27¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots