Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.7pts: 12¢ at window start → 12¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 10¢ (band 7¢–10¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 8.1× this market's 7-day norm, $6.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.5:1 bid, $2.6k/$1.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $250, 1.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 107 trades / 7d

Book 2.5:1 bid, $2.6k/$1.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.7¢

Triggers (1)

• 31 Aug 2026, 20:36 UTC: Sustained reprice: 12¢ → 15¢ (+3.6pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.22× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 15¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 13¢, held +1.3ptspts
• Peak move: +3.6pts
• Held 21% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 12¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots